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ManagementStrategy

Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking

Paul J.H. SchoemakerHarvard Business Review16 min readSeptember 1, 1995
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Summary

Outlines how scenario planning, pioneered at Royal Dutch Shell, helps organizations prepare for multiple plausible futures rather than betting on a single forecast. Provides a step-by-step method for constructing scenarios that sharpen strategic decision-making under deep uncertainty.

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