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Product ManagementStrategyUX Design

Prospect Theory: How People Actually Make Decisions Under Uncertainty

Richard ThalerMIT Sloan Management Review14 min readMay 20, 2019
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Summary

Prospect theory, which won Kahneman and Tversky the Nobel Prize, demonstrates that people evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point rather than in absolute terms, and that losses loom larger than equivalent gains. This explains why customers are more outraged by a $5 surcharge than they are pleased by a $5 discount. The article maps prospect theory principles to practical business decisions including pricing strategy, contract design, and change communication, showing how framing around reference points dramatically shifts acceptance rates.

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